Your crisis intelligence widget feed

What changed in the last 24 hours

• ETI fell 6.0 points to 28.6 (L2) from 34.6. It peaked at 36.6 at 14:55 UTC on Nov 9, dropped to 22.0 at 05:55 UTC and then recovered to 28.6. Coverage is 94%, and four feeds are stale: Markets, Polymarket, PortWatch and FRED. Prediction markets are offline.
• Persistent pressure is 42.1 (L3), 13.5 points above the acute reading. The components still holding it up are military aircraft (90 retained vs 69 live), climate hazards (79 vs 10), FX volatility (64 vs 53), prediction markets (53, offline) and private aviation (33 vs 0). The low acute score reflects a slower rate of change, not a calmer world.
• FX volatility leads at ILS z=1.8σ, but the move is the shekel getting stronger, not weaker. Investing.com data show USD/ILS fell 1.16% to 3.1538 on Nov 9, from 3.19 on Nov 6.
• Market receipts point to relief, not fear. SPY rose 1.4% and SLV 1.3%, so silver lagged equities and flight-to-safety stays at 0. EWY rose 3.6% on the day but is still down 6.3% over five days.

World context

The Iran war continues at a low level. Al Jazeera reports US strikes on Qeshm Island after more ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and CBS says Tehran dismissed a new CENTCOM task force aimed at its ground transport routes. That backs up the corroborated canaries. The report that Bessent asked China to help end the war is still a canary corroborated only by GDELT. The Taiwan warship item (conf 45) is unconfirmed.

US-mediated Ukraine–Russia talks begin today in Abu Dhabi and run through Nov 11. They are the first round since February, when the Iran war interrupted them.

In Japan, a magnitude 5.9 quake struck off the eastern coast on Nov 9. There was no tsunami and no reported damage. It followed a shindo 5+ quake in Aichi on Nov 8, and the JMA advises staying alert for about a week.

Dominant theme

Japan is the only chain above 0.5 (severity 0.66), but only two of its four signals are specific to Japan.

• Japan-specific: a GDACS relief signal of 42 (M5.7, 230k people exposed to MMI IV shaking) and the JP10Y−US10Y spread at −181bp (z=1.9σ). The 10-year JGB rose 3bp to 2.68% on Nov 9, after a risk-off rally the week before.
• Region-wide spillover: the named-jet match and the +47% rise in Asia-Pacific crisis news.
• South Korea (0.42) has one country-specific signal, the EWY move, and is otherwise just regional spillover.

Maritime chokepoints (100, Panama −100%) contribute 4.0, but the PortWatch feed is listed as unavailable. All five analogs show the same 100 reading going back to Sep 18, so treat it as an unverified reading, not a new closure.

Other indicators still firing: sovereign CDS 75, displacement 83, health security 84 (13 CDC Level 2+ notices, led by yellow fever in Ghana), travel advisories 69 (24 at Level 4, 27 at Level 3), and Argentina's USDT premium at +8%. That last one is a single signal, not a chain.

Interpretation

System temperature is aligned: behavioral 0.30, narrative 0.23, priced 0.31, gap +0.02. The gap gives no early-warning edge, so the ETI level sets the magnitude.

Correlation dampening matters here. VIX 19.9, MOVE score 19 and FX volatility 53 belong to one market-panic cluster, so they count as one theme, not three confirmations. Two prior closes for VIX are also outside the freshness window. CDS and the yield curve (29) are likewise one rates-and-credit theme.

Matrix v4 ranks military aircraft as the top lever by a wide margin (Y1=0.372) and also a fast responder (X1=0.063). Live, 20 aircraft are aloft (22 crisis-weighted), against a retained level of 90. If the current state cascades unchecked, the matrix's T+2 projection puts the biggest rises in public attention (+1.36), private aviation (+1.12), FX volatility (+1.10) and market fear (+1.07). Travel advisories (X1=0.312) would be the first to register.

Energy stress at 10 (US crude stocks −0.2%) against reported attacks on Hormuz shipping means a conflict is in the news while energy markets barely react. UNG +2.1% is the only energy confirmation.

The closest analog is 2026-11-03 08:45 UTC (96%, ETI 31 L3), when maritime was 100, public attention 100 and health 84. Today's main difference is that public attention is at 41.

What to watch in the next 24 hours

• Abu Dhabi talks: a breakdown alongside a large Russian strike would hit military aircraft, the matrix's top lever, directly.
• Hormuz: watch whether energy stress moves off 10.
• PortWatch: once the feed is back, it will confirm or clear the Panama −100% reading.