Cross-source confirmation.

What changed in the last 24 hours

ETI rose to 31.1 (level 3), up +5.0 points from 26.1, crossing from L2 into L3, with an intraday high of 33.2 and a path of 26 → 30 → 33 → 29 → 31. The lift is concentrated in Asia-Pacific FX and private aviation, not in market fear, which remains quiet at score 24.

• FX volatility (score 62, +5.6 contribution) is the single largest mover: KRW z=2.1σ, with JPY (1.16σ) and THB (1.25σ) firing alongside — a regional, not idiosyncratic, signal.
• Private aviation (38) runs +69% vs baseline globally; Spain shows bizjets +100% (4 vs 2).
• Maritime chokepoints pin at 100 — Suez throughput −21% on PortWatch (current 29 vs baseline), with Bosporus −24.8%, Luzon −27.9%, and Windward Passage −28.3% all degraded.
• Military aircraft (63): 14 aloft, 19 crisis-weighted.

World context

The behavioral cluster is Asian. Japan is the dominant chain (severity 0.61, 5 signals): JP 10Y−US10Y spread at −194bps (z=2.1σ), JPY weak, Hang Seng −1.59%, plus a 5.7M earthquake. South Korea follows (0.55) on the KRW move and a regional equity drop. In Europe, Spain (0.50) pairs a −102bps spread with ACLED unrest +35% over baseline (279 events) and the bizjet spike; Germany (0.49) shows a −146bps spread and EUR softness.

GDELT tone is most negative in the Middle East at −3.1 (conflict theme, Netanyahu-centered) and Russia/CIS at −2.1. Health security sits high at 84 on CDC Level-3 Ebola Bundibugyo in DRC and Level-2 cases in Uganda. Crisis-news and internet-disruption indicators are quiet — this is a money-and-skies move, not a headline move.

Dominant theme

Revealed action is repositioning around Asian rates and currencies while the narrative tape stays calm. The rates-and-credit cluster (Japan/Germany/Spain spreads) and the FX cluster point at one latent factor — capital repricing dollar-relative yield in Asia and the European periphery. Per the correlation-dampening rule, the two-member market-panic and rates-credit clusters are discounted, so this is one coordinated theme, not independent confirmation.

Interpretation

The System Temperature reads aligned: behavioral 0.36, narrative 0.30, priced 0.30, complacency gap +0.06. All three layers move in step, so the gap offers no early-warning edge this turn — read the ETI level, not the divergence. Stressed axes are capital fleeing, credit tight, crowd odds anxious, and skies active. At 31.1 this is meaningful-but-contained L3 stress, with behavior leading only fractionally.

The AEC matrix v2 (gear ratio 0.17) flags Military aircraft as the top lever (Y1=0.386) and Travel advisories as the most responsive node (X1=0.298, now 67). Its T+2 path of least resistance — conditional, not a forecast — casts Public attention +1.31, FX volatility +1.00, Private aviation +0.97, and Market fear +0.97 as the next to move if today's vector cascades unchecked. That is the matrix saying the currently-quiet fear complex is the most exposed downstream of the FX move.

The nearest archive analogs are yesterday's snapshots at ETI 26–27 (98% similarity) and 2026-05-20 at ETI 34 L3 (97%) — today sits between them; no higher-stress comparable exists in the current archive.

What to watch in the next 24 hours

Watch whether the FX move pulls Market fear (24) and Public attention (57) up, which is the matrix's flagged cascade, and whether Japan's −194bps spread widens further. Seismic is offline this turn (USGS stale) — a coverage gap, not an all-clear.