Nigeria is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Crisis news +83%. africa crisis volume +83% vs 24h avg · region-wide
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is long LMT over weeks to months.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Nigeria, measured against its observed median baseline.
Research long LMT Country signals in Nigeria overlap with defense prime (f-35, missile defense).
Research long RTX Country signals in Nigeria overlap with missiles and defense electronics.
NGE is the cleanest listed country proxy for Nigeria risk repricing.
africa crisis volume +83% vs 24h avg · region-wide
Parallel-market dollarization vs official rate