Nigeria is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Unrest +173%. Niger unrest above trailing baseline · 495 recent events
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short NGE over days to weeks.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Nigeria, measured against its observed median baseline.
NGE is the cleanest listed country proxy for Nigeria risk repricing.
Niger unrest above trailing baseline · 495 recent events
Parallel-market dollarization vs official rate