Japan is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Spread Z1.9σ. JP 10Y − US10Y = -204bps
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short EWJ over days to weeks.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Japan, measured against its observed median baseline.
EWJ is the cleanest listed country proxy for Japan risk repricing.
JP 10Y − US10Y = -204bps
Named-jet watchlist match over asia_pacific · region-wide