Argentina is in a medium-confidence warning band; watch for priced-market confirmation inside the next 24-72h.
Leading receipt: Unrest +83%. Argentina unrest above trailing baseline · 197 recent events
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short ARGT over days to weeks.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Argentina, measured against its observed median baseline.
ARGT is the cleanest listed country proxy for Argentina risk repricing.
Research long LMT Country signals in Argentina overlap with defense prime (f-35, missile defense).
Research long RTX Country signals in Argentina overlap with missiles and defense electronics.
Research long VIXY Country signals in Argentina overlap with volatility hedge.
Research long NOC Country signals in Argentina overlap with long-cycle defense (b-21, space, drones).
Argentina unrest above trailing baseline · 197 recent events
Parallel-market dollarization vs official rate
Argentina ETF 24h -1.8% · 5d +2.8%