United States is on monitor; another independent evidence family would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Bizjets +491%. 65 flights vs 11 observed baseline
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is long VIXY over hours to days.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over United States, measured against its observed median baseline.
Research long VIXY Country signals in United States overlap with volatility hedge.
65 flights vs 11 observed baseline