United States is on monitor; another independent evidence family would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Bizjets +220%. 16 flights vs 5 observed baseline
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is long VIXY over hours to days.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over United States, measured against its observed median baseline.
Research long VIXY Country signals in United States overlap with volatility hedge.
16 flights vs 5 observed baseline