Saudi Arabia is on monitor; another independent evidence family would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Bizjets +200%. 3 flights vs 1 observed baseline
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short KSA over days to weeks.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Saudi Arabia, measured against its observed median baseline.
KSA is the cleanest listed country proxy for Saudi Arabia risk repricing.
3 flights vs 1 observed baseline