Saudi Arabia is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Unrest +182%. Saudi Arabia unrest above trailing baseline · 4528 recent events
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short KSA over days to weeks.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Saudi Arabia, measured against its observed median baseline.
KSA is the cleanest listed country proxy for Saudi Arabia risk repricing.
Saudi Arabia unrest above trailing baseline · 4528 recent events
2 flights vs 1 baseline · 30 samples