PLWarnmedium confidence

Poland Risk

Poland is in a medium-confidence warning band; watch for priced-market confirmation inside the next 24-72h.

64
country risk score
Forecast frame

If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short EEM over days to weeks.

Watch for
  • FX, parallel-dollar, or sovereign-spread continuation
  • On-the-ground deterioration from unrest, humanitarian, or hazard feeds

Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.

Signal quality
3
signals
3
sources
5
markets

Multiple independent sources matter more than one loud reading. This page is strongest when local signals and priced-market confirmation move together.

Country aviation
1
now
1
base
+0%
delta

Business-jet activity over Poland, measured against its observed median baseline.

Market implication cards

5 reads · research only
EEMShort48%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
AEC

Research short / avoid EEM Country signals in Poland overlap with emerging markets.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizondays to weeks
  • AEC overlap: FX volatility 71/100
  • AEC overlap: Humanitarian pressure 50/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
EPOLShort42%
Poland ETF
country

EPOL is the cleanest listed country proxy for Poland risk repricing.

px$39.7524h-1.2%5d-2.0%horizondays to weeks
  • EPOL -1.2% 24h; priced country ETF stress for PL.
  • PLN weak: Z30d 2.40σ · +0.0% 24h
  • Relief signal 50: Green flood alert in Poland
GOLDLong34%
Barrick Gold
AEC

Research long GOLD Country signals in Poland overlap with gold miner with em operations.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizonweeks to months
  • AEC overlap: FX volatility 71/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • fx: PLN weak
NEMLong29%
Newmont
AEC

Research long NEM Country signals in Poland overlap with largest us gold miner.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizonweeks to months
  • AEC overlap: FX volatility 71/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • fx: PLN weak
AEMLong26%
Agnico Eagle Mines
AEC

Research long AEM Country signals in Poland overlap with premium canadian gold operator.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizonweeks to months
  • AEC overlap: FX volatility 71/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • fx: PLN weak

Signal receipts

3 active · live
fx47

PLN weak

Z30d 2.40σ · +0.0% 24h

humanitarian42

Relief signal 50

Green flood alert in Poland

acled28

Unrest +60%

Poland unrest above trailing baseline · 460 recent events