Italy is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Spread Z2.1σ. IT 10Y − US10Y = -110bps
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is long LMT over weeks to months.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Italy, measured against its observed median baseline.
Research long LMT Country signals in Italy overlap with defense prime (f-35, missile defense).
Research long RTX Country signals in Italy overlap with missiles and defense electronics.
EWI is the cleanest listed country proxy for Italy risk repricing.