GBWarnmedium confidence

UK Risk

UK is in a medium-confidence warning band; watch for priced-market confirmation inside the next 24-72h.

64
country risk score
CountriesDashboard
Forecast frame

If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short EWU over days to weeks.

Watch for
  • FX, parallel-dollar, or sovereign-spread continuation
  • On-the-ground deterioration from unrest, humanitarian, or hazard feeds

Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.

Signal quality
3
signals
3
sources
1
markets

Multiple independent sources matter more than one loud reading. This page is strongest when local signals and priced-market confirmation move together.

Country aviation
3
now
2
base
+50%
delta

Business-jet activity over UK, measured against its observed median baseline.

Market implication cards

1 reads · research only
EWUShort41%
UK ETF
country

EWU is the cleanest listed country proxy for UK risk repricing.

px$47.1624h+0.6%5d+1.7%horizondays to weeks
  • EWU +0.6% 24h; priced country ETF stress for GB.
  • Unrest +300%: GB unrest above trailing baseline · 12 recent events
  • Bizjets +50%: 3 flights vs 2 observed baseline

Signal receipts

3 active · live
acled100

Unrest +300%

GB unrest above trailing baseline · 12 recent events

bizjet20

Bizjets +50%

3 flights vs 2 observed baseline

yields18

Spread Z1.5σ

GB 10Y − US10Y = +37bps