France is in a medium-confidence warning band; watch for priced-market confirmation inside the next 24-72h.
Leading receipt: Unrest +117%. France unrest above trailing baseline · 3939 recent events
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is long LMT over weeks to months.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over France, measured against its observed median baseline.
Research long LMT Country signals in France overlap with defense prime (f-35, missile defense).
Research short / avoid JETS Country signals in France overlap with airlines and travel.
Research long RTX Country signals in France overlap with missiles and defense electronics.
Research long NOC Country signals in France overlap with long-cycle defense (b-21, space, drones).
Research long GD Country signals in France overlap with navy shipbuilding + defense it.
France unrest above trailing baseline · 3939 recent events
FR 10Y − US10Y = -61bps
Weighted state/military aircraft count in latest snapshot
europe crisis volume +28% vs 24h avg · region-wide