France is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Military activity 2.0. Weighted state/military aircraft count in latest snapshot
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short JETS over days to weeks.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over France, measured against its observed median baseline.
Research short / avoid JETS Country signals in France overlap with airlines and travel.
Research long LMT Country signals in France overlap with defense prime (f-35, missile defense).
Research long RTX Country signals in France overlap with missiles and defense electronics.
Research long NOC Country signals in France overlap with long-cycle defense (b-21, space, drones).
Research long GD Country signals in France overlap with navy shipbuilding + defense it.
Weighted state/military aircraft count in latest snapshot
FR 10Y − US10Y = -111bps