China is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Unrest +171%. CN unrest above trailing baseline · 3 recent events
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is long VIXY over hours to days.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over China, measured against its observed median baseline.
Research long VIXY Country signals in China overlap with volatility hedge.
MCHI is the cleanest listed country proxy for China risk repricing.
CN unrest above trailing baseline · 3 recent events
Named-jet watchlist match over asia_pacific · region-wide