Switzerland is on monitor; another independent evidence family would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Bizjets +100%. 2 flights vs 1 observed baseline
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short ECH over days to weeks.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Switzerland, measured against its observed median baseline.
ECH is the cleanest listed country proxy for Switzerland risk repricing.
2 flights vs 1 observed baseline